Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 12 August 2024 for the Thuringia state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 4 to 11 Aug 2024
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- AfD27.5%-9.0
- CDU23.0%+7.0
- BSW19.0%
- Linke15.5%-11.5
- SPD4.5%-2.5
- FDP2.5%-1.5
- Grüne2.5%-0.5
- Others5.5%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 26 Dec 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD ahead on 27.5%, followed by CDU on 23.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 4 to 11 Aug 2024, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 26 Dec 2023, Linke loses 11.5 points, AfD loses 9.0 points, CDU gains 7.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD 2.5 points lower and Linke 2.2 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 12 Aug 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD -2.5average 7.0
- Linke +2.2average 13.3
- AfD -1.5average 29.0
- Grüne -1.2average 3.7
- CDU +1.0average 22.0
- BSW -1.0average 20.0
- FDP +0.5average 2.0
Seat projection from this poll
88 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, electoral threshold 5%.
- AfD28
- CDU24
- BSW20
- Linke16
- AfD + CDU52 of 88
- AfD + BSW48 of 88
- CDU + BSW + Linke60 of 88
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.