Single poll

Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 22 May 2024 for the European election

Commissioned by
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Fieldwork period
13 to 21 May 2024
Respondents
2,600
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU31.0%-0.5
  • AfD16.0%±0
  • Grüne15.0%-1.0
  • SPD12.5%+0.5
  • BSW6.5%-1.0
  • FDP3.5%+0.5
  • Linke3.0%+1.0
  • Freie Wähler2.5%-1.0
  • Tierschutzpartei2.0%-0.5
  • Die PARTEI1.5%±0
  • Others6.5%+2.0

Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 29 Feb 2024.

In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 16.0%. 2,600 people were surveyed from 13 to 21 May 2024, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.

Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 29 Feb 2024, Grüne loses 1.0 points, BSW loses 1.0 points, Linke gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD 2.8 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 22 May 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD -2.8average 15.3
  • BSW +0.5average 6.0
  • Freie Wähler -0.5average 3.0
  • Die PARTEI +0.5average 1.0
  • CDU/CSU +0.4average 30.6
  • AfD +0.4average 15.6
  • Grüne +0.4average 14.6
  • FDP -0.3average 3.8
  • Linke -0.3average 3.3
  • Tierschutzpartei ±0average 2.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

96 seats by Sainte-Laguë, no electoral threshold at the 2024 European election.

CDU/CSU: 31 seatsAfD: 16 seatsGrüne: 15 seatsSPD: 13 seatsBSW: 7 seatsFDP: 4 seatsLinke: 3 seatsFreie Wähler: 3 seatsDie PARTEI: 2 seatsTierschutzpartei: 2 seatsMajority from 4996of 96 seats
  • CDU/CSU31
  • AfD16
  • Grüne15
  • SPD13
  • BSW7
  • FDP4
  • Linke3
  • Freie Wähler3
  • Die PARTEI2
  • Tierschutzpartei2
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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