Single poll

Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 21 January 2024 for the European election

Commissioned by
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Fieldwork period
11 to 18 Jan 2024
Respondents
1,570
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU28.0%+6.0
  • AfD23.0%+4.5
  • Grüne13.0%-8.0
  • SPD9.0%-12.0
  • BSW7.0%
  • Freie Wähler5.0%+1.5
  • FDP4.5%+1.0
  • Linke3.0%-0.5
  • Die PARTEI1.5%-0.5
  • Tierschutzpartei1.5%-1.0
  • Others4.5%+2.5

Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 17 Dec 2022.

In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 28.0%, followed by AfD on 23.0%. 1,570 people were surveyed from 11 to 18 Jan 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.

Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 17 Dec 2022, SPD loses 12.0 points, Grüne loses 8.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 6.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD 10.0 points lower and FDP 2.5 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD -10.0average 19.0
  • FDP -2.5average 7.0
  • CDU/CSU +2.0average 26.0
  • Grüne -2.0average 15.0
  • Linke -2.0average 5.0
  • AfD ±0average 23.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

96 seats by Sainte-Laguë, no electoral threshold at the 2024 European election.

CDU/CSU: 28 seatsAfD: 23 seatsGrüne: 13 seatsSPD: 9 seatsBSW: 7 seatsFDP: 5 seatsFreie Wähler: 5 seatsLinke: 3 seatsDie PARTEI: 2 seatsTierschutzpartei: 1 seatMajority from 4996of 96 seats
  • CDU/CSU28
  • AfD23
  • Grüne13
  • SPD9
  • BSW7
  • FDP5
  • Freie Wähler5
  • Linke3
  • Die PARTEI2
  • Tierschutzpartei1
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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