Austria election forecast 2029: who is ahead?
National Council election in Austria, expected autumn 2029. Polls as of 15 September 2026, 5 pollsters. FPÖ leads with 37.4%; in over 99% of the simulated outcomes FPÖ remains the largest party. Polls are not a prediction but the mood today; a lot can shift before the election.
If the National Council election were held today
Average of the latest poll from each pollster within the last 90 days, compared with the result of the National Council election 2024.
- FPÖ37.4%+8.6
- ÖVP20.8%-5.5
- SPÖ16.4%-4.7
- Grüne11.6%+3.4
- NEOS7.2%-1.9
- KPÖ4.2%+1.8
- Others2.4%-1.6
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 4%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the election result of 29 Sep 2024.
What the National Council would look like today
183 seats. Four per cent threshold nationwide, or one basic mandate in a regional constituency. Seats are allocated in three stages (regional constituencies, state constituencies, federal level); we simplify by calculating nationwide by d'Hondt, which comes close to the final result of the third stage. The government of ÖVP, SPÖ, NEOS would have 83 seats and thus no longer hold a majority.
- FPÖ71
- ÖVP39
- SPÖ31
- Grüne22
- NEOS13
- KPÖ7
- ÖVP + SPÖ + NEOSGovernment, no majority83 of 183
- FPÖ + ÖVP110 of 183
- FPÖ + SPÖ102 of 183
- FPÖ + Grüne93 of 183
- ÖVP + SPÖ + Grüne92 of 183
How likely are the majorities?
3,000 simulations with randomly varied polling figures; spread from sampling error and a flat systematic deviation of 1.5 points. This is the uncertainty of the polls today, not the uncertainty up to election day.
Majority in parliament
- ÖVP + SPÖ + NEOSGovernment4%
- FPÖ + ÖVPover 99%
- FPÖ + SPÖover 99%
- FPÖ + Grüne68%
- ÖVP + SPÖ + Grüne61%
- ÖVP + SPÖunder 1%
- ÖVP + Grüneunder 1%
- SPÖ + Grüneunder 1%
Clearing the electoral threshold
- KPÖ (±1.5)55%
- NEOS (±1.5)98%
3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.
What has shifted since the last election
What this forecast can and cannot do
For Germany we have calculated how far polling averages were off depending on the distance to the election: two years out a good four points per party on average, one week out a good one and a half. For Austria we do not have this history yet; the order of magnitude is likely to be similar. The analysis for Germany shows the table.
Polls: Wikipedia authors, article "Next Austrian legislative election" (CC BY-SA 4.0). Election result: Federal Ministry of the Interior, National Council election 2024. Calculations: wahlergebnisse.io.