Single poll

INSA poll of 15 November 2023 for the Schleswig-Holstein state election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
6 to 13 Nov 2023
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • CDU40.0%+1.0
  • Grüne16.0%-1.0
  • SPD15.0%-1.0
  • AfD12.0%+5.0
  • FDP6.0%-2.0
  • SSW6.0%-1.0
  • Others5.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 25 Apr 2023.

In this poll INSA has CDU ahead on 40.0%, followed by Grüne on 16.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 6 to 13 Nov 2023, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 25 Apr 2023, AfD gains 5.0 points, FDP loses 2.0 points, CDU gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU 4.7 points higher and SSW 2.0 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 180-day average of the other pollsters on 15 Nov 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU +4.7average 35.3
  • SSW -2.0average 8.0
  • Grüne -1.5average 17.5
  • SPD +0.5average 14.5
  • AfD +0.5average 11.5
  • FDP -0.5average 6.5
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

69 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold; the SSW is exempt as the party of the Danish minority.

CDU: 29 seatsGrüne: 12 seatsSPD: 11 seatsAfD: 9 seatsFDP: 4 seatsSSW: 4 seatsMajority from 3569of 69 seats
  • CDU29
  • Grüne12
  • SPD11
  • AfD9
  • FDP4
  • SSW4
  • CDU + Grüne41 of 69
  • CDU + SPD40 of 69
  • CDU + AfD38 of 69
  • CDU + FDP + SSW37 of 69
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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