INSA poll of 14 July 2026 for the Schleswig-Holstein state election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 7 to 14 Jul 2026
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- CDU27.0%-12.0
- AfD18.0%+4.0
- Grüne17.0%+4.0
- SPD15.0%-1.0
- Linke7.0%
- FDP6.0%+2.0
- SSW6.0%±0
- Others4.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 22 Jan 2025.
In this poll INSA has CDU ahead on 27.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 7 to 14 Jul 2026, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 22 Jan 2025, CDU loses 12.0 points, AfD gains 4.0 points, Grüne gains 4.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU 6.0 points lower and AfD 3.0 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 180-day average of the other pollsters on 14 Jul 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU -6.0average 33.0
- AfD +3.0average 15.0
- SPD +3.0average 12.0
- Grüne -2.0average 19.0
- FDP +2.0average 4.0
- Linke +1.0average 6.0
- SSW +1.0average 5.0
Seat projection from this poll
69 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold; the SSW is exempt as the party of the Danish minority.
- CDU20
- AfD13
- Grüne12
- SPD11
- Linke5
- FDP4
- SSW4
- CDU + AfD + Grüne45 of 69
- CDU + AfD + SPD44 of 69
- CDU + Grüne + SPD43 of 69
- CDU + AfD + Linke38 of 69
- CDU + AfD + FDP37 of 69
- CDU + AfD + SSW37 of 69
- CDU + Grüne + Linke37 of 69
- CDU + Grüne + FDP36 of 69
- CDU + Grüne + SSW36 of 69
- CDU + SPD + Linke36 of 69
- AfD + Grüne + SPD36 of 69
- CDU + SPD + FDP35 of 69
- CDU + SPD + SSW35 of 69
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.