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Official final result · 26 September 2021

2021 German federal election: the result

In the federal election on 26 September 2021, SPD became the largest party with 25.7%, 1.6 points ahead of CDU/CSU (24.1%).

Votes

Result of the 2021 federal election

Shares in percent of second votes, change on the election of 24 Sep 2017 in points. Parties below one percent are grouped as Others.

  • SPD25.7%+5.2
  • CDU/CSU24.1%-8.8
  • Grüne14.8%+5.9
  • FDP11.5%+0.8
  • AfD10.3%-2.3
  • Linke4.9%-4.3
  • Piraten0.4%±0
  • NPD0.1%-0.3
  • SSW0.1%
  • Bayernpartei0.1%±0
  • Others8.0%+3.7

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the 2017 election.

2021 German federal election: result by party and change
Party20212017ChangeSeats (projected)
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands25.7%20.5%+5.2187
CDU/CSU24.1%32.9%-8.8175
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen14.8%8.9%+5.9108
Freie Demokratische Partei11.5%10.7%+0.884
Alternative für Deutschland10.3%12.6%-2.375
Die Linke4.9%9.2%-4.3–
Piratenpartei0.4%0.4%±0–
Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands0.1%0.4%-0.3–
Südschleswigscher Wählerverband0.1%–new1
Bayernpartei0.1%0.1%±0–
Others8.0%4.3%+3.7–

Source: Federal Returning Officer, compiled via wahlrecht.de. Seats projected by Sainte-Laguë/Schepers on 630 regular seats, without overhang and compensatory seats. JSON · CSV

Projected

Seat distribution in the Bundestag after the 2021 result

630 regular seats by Sainte-Laguë/Schepers. Electoral threshold of 5%. The actual size of the parliament may differ due to overhang and compensatory seats.

SPD: 187 seatsCDU/CSU: 175 seatsGrüne: 108 seatsFDP: 84 seatsAfD: 75 seatsSSW: 1 seatMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • SPD187
  • CDU/CSU175
  • Grüne108
  • FDP84
  • AfD75
  • SSW1
Majorities

Which alliances had a majority after the 2021 election

All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority.

Coalition calculator: tap the parties
Tap parties to test an alliance
SPD: 187 seatsCDU/CSU: 175 seatsGrüne: 108 seatsFDP: 84 seatsAfD: 75 seatsSSW: 1 seat0/630
Majority from 316 seats
Projected seats based on the official result, 630 regular seats, majority from 316.
  • SPD + CDU/CSU362 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + FDP379 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + AfD370 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP367 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD358 of 630
  • SPD + FDP + AfD346 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + FDP + AfD334 of 630
Before the election

The polls in the last 30 days before the 2021 federal election

48 polls between 27 Aug 2021 and 24 Sep 2021, each one available individually.

Polls before the 2021 federal election
PollsterPublishedSPDCDU/CSUGrüneFDPAfDLinkePiratenNPD
Institut Wahlkreisprognose24 Sep 202125.522.51412117––
Allensbach24 Sep 202126251610.5105––
Forsa24 Sep 202125221712106––
Ipsos24 Sep 202126221612117––
Civey23 Sep 202125231612106––
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen23 Sep 2021252316.511106––
Verian (Emnid)23 Sep 202125211611117––
YouGov23 Sep 202125211411127––
Institut Wahlkreisprognose21 Sep 20212521.51512.5116.5––
Trend Research Hamburg21 Sep 202127221511117––
Forsa21 Sep 202125221711116––
INSA20 Sep 202125221512116.5––
INSA18 Sep 202126211512116––
Ipsos17 Sep 202127211810117––
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen17 Sep 202125221611116––
Institut Wahlkreisprognose16 Sep 202127201512.5116.5––
Infratest dimap16 Sep 202126221511116––
Verian (Emnid)16 Sep 202126201711126––
YouGov16 Sep 202125201510118––
Civey15 Sep 202125231712106––
GMS14 Sep 202125231613116––
Forsa14 Sep 202125211711116––
INSA13 Sep 20212620.51512.511.56.5––
INSA12 Sep 202126201513116––
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen10 Sep 202125221711116––
YouGov10 Sep 202126211510126––
Verian (Emnid)9 Sep 202125211712126––
Civey8 Sep 202125231711116––
Institut Wahlkreisprognose8 Sep 202128191412116––
Allensbach8 Sep 2021272515.59.5116––

Last poll before the election: Institut Wahlkreisprognose, 24 Sep 2021

Our analysis

Who came closest before the 2021 election?

Deviation of each pollster's last poll from the result, by party in points. Ranked by mean absolute deviation.

Deviation of the last polls before the election of 26 Sep 2021 from the result, in percentage points
PollsterPoll datedSPDCDU/CSUGrüneFDPAfDLinkeØ abs.
Result 26 Sep 202125.7%24.1%14.8%11.5%10.3%4.9%
Allensbach24 Sep 2021 (2 days before)+0.3+0.9+1.2-1.0-0.3+0.10.6
Civey23 Sep 2021 (3 days before)-0.7-1.1+1.2+0.5-0.3+1.10.8
Infratest dimap16 Sep 2021 (10 days before)+0.3-2.1+0.2-0.5+0.7+1.10.8
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen23 Sep 2021 (3 days before)-0.7-1.1+1.7-0.5-0.3+1.10.9
Institut Wahlkreisprognose24 Sep 2021 (2 days before)-0.2-1.6-0.8+0.5+0.7+2.11.0
INSA20 Sep 2021 (6 days before)-0.7-2.1+0.2+0.5+0.7+1.61.0
GMS14 Sep 2021 (12 days before)-0.7-1.1+1.2+1.5+0.7+1.11.1
Forsa24 Sep 2021 (2 days before)-0.7-2.1+2.2+0.5-0.3+1.11.2
Ipsos24 Sep 2021 (2 days before)+0.3-2.1+1.2+0.5+0.7+2.11.2
Trend Research Hamburg21 Sep 2021 (5 days before)+1.3-2.1+0.2-0.5+0.7+2.11.2
Verian (Emnid)23 Sep 2021 (3 days before)-0.7-3.1+1.2-0.5+0.7+2.11.4
YouGov23 Sep 2021 (3 days before)-0.7-3.1-0.8-0.5+1.7+2.11.5

Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.

Accuracy of all pollsters since 2017

More

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