Single poll

Trend Research Hamburg poll of 21 September 2021 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Radio Hamburg
Fieldwork period
13 to 16 Sep 2021
Respondents
1,097
Method
Online
  • SPD27.0%+1.0
  • CDU/CSU22.0%+2.0
  • Grüne15.0%±0
  • FDP11.0%-2.0
  • AfD11.0%-1.0
  • Linke7.0%±0
  • Others8.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Trend Research Hamburg poll of 8 Sep 2021.

In this poll Trend Research Hamburg has SPD ahead on 27.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 22.0%. 1,097 people were surveyed from 13 to 16 Sep 2021, method Online, commissioned by Radio Hamburg.

Compared with the previous Trend Research Hamburg poll of 8 Sep 2021, CDU/CSU gains 2.0 points, FDP loses 2.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Sep 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD +1.3average 25.7
  • Grüne -1.0average 16.0
  • Linke +0.6average 6.4
  • CDU/CSU +0.2average 21.8
  • FDP -0.2average 11.2
  • AfD ±0average 11.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

SPD: 183 seatsCDU/CSU: 149 seatsGrüne: 102 seatsFDP: 75 seatsAfD: 74 seatsLinke: 47 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • SPD183
  • CDU/CSU149
  • Grüne102
  • FDP75
  • AfD74
  • Linke47
  • SPD + CDU/CSU332 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + FDP360 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + AfD359 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + Linke332 of 630
  • SPD + FDP + AfD332 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP326 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD325 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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