Single poll
GMS poll of 19 October 2026 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- GMS
- Fieldwork period
- 14 to 19 Oct 2026
- Respondents
- 1,012
- Method
- Telefon & Online
In this poll GMS has AfD ahead on 30.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 19.0%. 1,012 people were surveyed from 14 to 19 Oct 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by GMS.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 14 Sep 2026, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has AfD 2.2 points higher.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 19 Oct 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +2.2average 27.8
- SPD -1.3average 13.3
- Linke -1.3average 11.3
- FDP -1.2average 4.2
- CDU/CSU -0.8average 19.8
- BSW -0.7average 3.7
- Grüne -0.1average 15.1
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- AfD220
- CDU/CSU139
- Grüne110
- SPD88
- Linke73
- AfD + CDU/CSU359 of 630
- AfD + Grüne330 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke381 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD337 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke322 of 630
More
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.