GMS poll of 14 September 2026 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- GMS
- Fieldwork period
- 9 to 14 Sep 2026
- Respondents
- 1,009
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- AfD30.0%+2.0
- CDU/CSU20.0%-3.0
- Grüne14.0%+1.0
- SPD11.0%±0
- Linke11.0%+1.0
- FDP4.0%-1.0
- BSW3.0%+1.0
- Freie Wähler1.0%±0
- Others6.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 20 Jul 2026.
In this poll GMS has AfD ahead on 30.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 20.0%. 1,009 people were surveyed from 9 to 14 Sep 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by GMS.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 20 Jul 2026, CDU/CSU loses 3.0 points, AfD gains 2.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has AfD 2.2 points higher and SPD 1.7 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 14 Sep 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +2.2average 27.8
- SPD -1.7average 12.7
- CDU/CSU -0.8average 20.8
- Grüne -0.6average 14.6
- Linke -0.6average 11.6
- FDP -0.6average 4.6
- BSW ±0average 3.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- AfD220
- CDU/CSU146
- Grüne102
- SPD81
- Linke81
- AfD + CDU/CSU366 of 630
- AfD + Grüne322 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke382 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD329 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke329 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.