GMS poll of 20 July 2026 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- GMS
- Fieldwork period
- 15 to 20 Jul 2026
- Respondents
- 1,005
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- AfD28.0%+1.0
- CDU/CSU23.0%±0
- Grüne13.0%-3.0
- SPD11.0%±0
- Linke10.0%-1.0
- FDP5.0%±0
- BSW2.0%±0
- Freie Wähler1.0%-1.0
- Others7.0%+4.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 1 Jun 2026.
In this poll GMS has AfD ahead on 28.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 23.0%. 1,005 people were surveyed from 15 to 20 Jul 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by GMS.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 1 Jun 2026, Grüne loses 3.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points, Linke loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has SPD 1.6 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 20 Jul 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD -1.6average 12.6
- Linke -1.4average 11.4
- BSW -1.3average 3.3
- CDU/CSU +1.1average 21.9
- Grüne -1.1average 14.1
- AfD +0.6average 27.4
- FDP +0.6average 4.4
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- AfD196
- CDU/CSU161
- Grüne91
- SPD77
- Linke70
- FDP35
- AfD + CDU/CSU357 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + SPD364 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke357 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke343 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD329 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + FDP322 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke322 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.