Single poll

INSA poll of 29 January 2026 for the Baden-Württemberg state election

Commissioned by
NIUS
Fieldwork period
20 to 27 Jan 2026
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • CDU29.0%-2.0
  • Grüne21.0%+4.0
  • AfD20.0%±0
  • SPD10.0%-1.0
  • Linke7.0%±0
  • FDP5.0%-2.0
  • BSW3.0%±0
  • Others5.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 Oct 2025.

In this poll INSA has CDU ahead on 29.0%, followed by Grüne on 21.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 20 to 27 Jan 2026, method Online, commissioned by NIUS.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 Oct 2025, Grüne gains 4.0 points, CDU loses 2.0 points, FDP loses 2.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 2.0 points lower and SPD 2.0 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 29 Jan 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -2.0average 23.0
  • SPD +2.0average 8.0
  • CDU ±0average 29.0
  • AfD ±0average 20.0
  • Linke ±0average 7.0
  • FDP ±0average 5.0
  • BSW ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

120 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CDU: 38 seatsGrüne: 27 seatsAfD: 26 seatsSPD: 13 seatsLinke: 9 seatsFDP: 7 seatsMajority from 61120of 120 seats
  • CDU38
  • Grüne27
  • AfD26
  • SPD13
  • Linke9
  • FDP7
  • CDU + Grüne65 of 120
  • CDU + AfD64 of 120
  • Grüne + AfD + SPD66 of 120
  • Grüne + AfD + Linke62 of 120
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.