Single poll

INSA poll of 16 October 2025 for the Baden-Württemberg state election

Commissioned by
Schwäbische Zeitung
Fieldwork period
7 to 14 Oct 2025
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • CDU31.0%±0
  • AfD20.0%+1.0
  • Grüne17.0%±0
  • SPD11.0%-1.0
  • FDP7.0%+1.0
  • Linke7.0%-1.0
  • BSW3.0%-1.0
  • Others4.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 9 May 2025.

In this poll INSA has CDU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 7 to 14 Oct 2025, method Online, commissioned by Schwäbische Zeitung.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 9 May 2025, AfD gains 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points, FDP gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 3.0 points lower and CDU 2.0 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Oct 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -3.0average 20.0
  • CDU +2.0average 29.0
  • FDP +2.0average 5.0
  • AfD -1.0average 21.0
  • SPD +1.0average 10.0
  • Linke ±0average 7.0
  • BSW ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

120 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CDU: 40 seatsAfD: 26 seatsGrüne: 22 seatsSPD: 14 seatsFDP: 9 seatsLinke: 9 seatsMajority from 61120of 120 seats
  • CDU40
  • AfD26
  • Grüne22
  • SPD14
  • FDP9
  • Linke9
  • CDU + AfD66 of 120
  • CDU + Grüne62 of 120
  • CDU + SPD + FDP63 of 120
  • CDU + SPD + Linke63 of 120
  • AfD + Grüne + SPD62 of 120
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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