Single poll

INSA poll of 9 May 2025 for the Baden-Württemberg state election

Commissioned by
Schwäbische Zeitung
Fieldwork period
29 Apr 2025 to 6 May 2025
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • CDU31.0%±0
  • AfD19.0%+1.0
  • Grüne17.0%-3.0
  • SPD12.0%-1.0
  • Linke8.0%+4.0
  • FDP6.0%+1.0
  • BSW4.0%-1.0
  • Others3.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 15 Feb 2025.

In this poll INSA has CDU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 29 Apr 2025 to 6 May 2025, method Online, commissioned by Schwäbische Zeitung.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 15 Feb 2025, Linke gains 4.0 points, Grüne loses 3.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 5.0 points lower and AfD 4.0 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 9 May 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -5.0average 22.0
  • AfD +4.0average 15.0
  • CDU -2.0average 33.0
  • FDP +2.0average 4.0
  • SPD -1.0average 13.0
  • BSW ±0average 4.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

120 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CDU: 40 seatsAfD: 25 seatsGrüne: 22 seatsSPD: 15 seatsLinke: 10 seatsFDP: 8 seatsMajority from 61120of 120 seats
  • CDU40
  • AfD25
  • Grüne22
  • SPD15
  • Linke10
  • FDP8
  • CDU + AfD65 of 120
  • CDU + Grüne62 of 120
  • CDU + SPD + Linke65 of 120
  • CDU + SPD + FDP63 of 120
  • AfD + Grüne + SPD62 of 120
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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