Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 5 March 2026 for the Baden-Württemberg state election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
4 to 5 Mar 2026
Respondents
1,069
Method
Telefon & Online
  • Grüne28.0%+3.0
  • CDU28.0%+1.0
  • AfD18.0%-1.0
  • SPD8.0%-1.0
  • FDP5.5%-0.5
  • Linke5.5%-0.5
  • Others7.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 27 Feb 2026.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has Grüne ahead on 28.0%, followed by CDU on 28.0%. 1,069 people were surveyed from 4 to 5 Mar 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 27 Feb 2026, Grüne gains 3.0 points, CDU gains 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has Grüne 2.5 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 5 Mar 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne +2.5average 25.5
  • AfD -1.0average 19.0
  • CDU +0.5average 27.5
  • FDP -0.5average 6.0
  • Linke -0.3average 5.8
  • SPD ±0average 8.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

120 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

Grüne: 37 seatsCDU: 36 seatsAfD: 23 seatsSPD: 10 seatsFDP: 7 seatsLinke: 7 seatsMajority from 61120of 120 seats
  • Grüne37
  • CDU36
  • AfD23
  • SPD10
  • FDP7
  • Linke7
  • Grüne + CDU73 of 120
  • Grüne + AfD + SPD70 of 120
  • CDU + AfD + SPD69 of 120
  • Grüne + AfD + FDP67 of 120
  • Grüne + AfD + Linke67 of 120
  • CDU + AfD + FDP66 of 120
  • CDU + AfD + Linke66 of 120
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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