Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 5 March 2026 for the Baden-Württemberg state election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 4 to 5 Mar 2026
- Respondents
- 1,069
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- Grüne28.0%+3.0
- CDU28.0%+1.0
- AfD18.0%-1.0
- SPD8.0%-1.0
- FDP5.5%-0.5
- Linke5.5%-0.5
- Others7.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 27 Feb 2026.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has Grüne ahead on 28.0%, followed by CDU on 28.0%. 1,069 people were surveyed from 4 to 5 Mar 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 27 Feb 2026, Grüne gains 3.0 points, CDU gains 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has Grüne 2.5 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 5 Mar 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne +2.5average 25.5
- AfD -1.0average 19.0
- CDU +0.5average 27.5
- FDP -0.5average 6.0
- Linke -0.3average 5.8
- SPD ±0average 8.0
Seat projection from this poll
120 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- Grüne37
- CDU36
- AfD23
- SPD10
- FDP7
- Linke7
- Grüne + CDU73 of 120
- Grüne + AfD + SPD70 of 120
- CDU + AfD + SPD69 of 120
- Grüne + AfD + FDP67 of 120
- Grüne + AfD + Linke67 of 120
- CDU + AfD + FDP66 of 120
- CDU + AfD + Linke66 of 120
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.