Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 27 February 2026 for the Baden-Württemberg state election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
23 to 26 Feb 2026
Respondents
1,049
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU27.0%+3.0
  • Grüne25.0%-9.0
  • AfD19.0%+8.0
  • SPD9.0%-1.0
  • FDP6.0%-5.0
  • Linke6.0%+3.0
  • Others8.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 11 Mar 2021.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU ahead on 27.0%, followed by Grüne on 25.0%. 1,049 people were surveyed from 23 to 26 Feb 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 11 Mar 2021, Grüne loses 9.0 points, AfD gains 8.0 points, FDP loses 5.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 27 Feb 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU -1.0average 28.0
  • Grüne +0.5average 24.5
  • SPD +0.5average 8.5
  • Linke -0.3average 6.3
  • AfD ±0average 19.0
  • FDP ±0average 6.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

120 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CDU: 35 seatsGrüne: 32 seatsAfD: 25 seatsSPD: 12 seatsFDP: 8 seatsLinke: 8 seatsMajority from 61120of 120 seats
  • CDU35
  • Grüne32
  • AfD25
  • SPD12
  • FDP8
  • Linke8
  • CDU + Grüne67 of 120
  • CDU + AfD + SPD72 of 120
  • Grüne + AfD + SPD69 of 120
  • CDU + AfD + FDP68 of 120
  • CDU + AfD + Linke68 of 120
  • Grüne + AfD + FDP65 of 120
  • Grüne + AfD + Linke65 of 120
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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