Baden-Württemberg state election 2021: the result
In the Baden-Württemberg state election on 14 March 2021, Grüne became the largest party with 32.6%, 8.5 points ahead of CDU (24.1%).
- Failed to clear the threshold
- Linke (3.6%), Freie Wähler (3.0%), Piraten (0.1%)
- Polls one week before
- off by 0.7 points per party on average, AfD overestimated by 2.1
- Turnout
- 63.8%
- Status
- official final result
Result of the 2021 state election
Turnout in the Baden-Württemberg state election on 14 March 2021 was 63.8%. The Landtag of Baden-Württemberg has 154 seats; a majority needs 78.
Shares in percent. Parties below one percent are grouped as Others.
| Party | Votes 2021 (%) | Seats |
|---|---|---|
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | 32.6% | 58 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union | 24.1% | 42 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands | 11.0% | 19 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei | 10.5% | 18 |
| Alternative für Deutschland | 9.7% | 17 |
| Die Linke | 3.6% | – |
| Freie Wähler | 3.0% | – |
| Piratenpartei | 0.1% | – |
| Others | 5.4% | – |
Source: state returning officer, compiled via wahlrecht.de. Official seats, 154 in total including overhang and compensatory seats. JSON · CSV
Seat distribution in the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg after the 2021 result
154 seats by the official result, including overhang and compensatory seats. Electoral threshold of 5%.
- Grüne58
- CDU42
- SPD19
- FDP18
- AfD17
Which alliances had a majority after the 2021 election
All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority.
- Grüne + CDU100 of 154
- Grüne + SPD + FDP95 of 154
- Grüne + SPD + AfD94 of 154
- Grüne + FDP + AfD93 of 154
- CDU + SPD + FDP79 of 154
- CDU + SPD + AfD78 of 154
The polls in the last 30 days before the 2021 state election
8 polls between 13 Feb 2021 and 12 Mar 2021, each one available individually.
| Pollster | Published | Grüne | CDU | SPD | FDP | AfD | Linke | Freie Wähler | Piraten | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 12 Mar 2021 | 32 | 23 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 4 | – | – | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 11 Mar 2021 | 34 | 24 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 3 | – | – | ||
| Civey | 10 Mar 2021 | 32 | 24 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 4 | – | – | ||
| INSA | 10 Mar 2021 | 32 | 25 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 3 | 2 | – | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5 Mar 2021 | 35 | 24 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 3 | – | – | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 4 Mar 2021 | 33 | 23 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 13 | 3.5 | – | – | ||
| Infratest dimap | 4 Mar 2021 | 33 | 25 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 4 | – | – | ||
| INSA | 13 Feb 2021 | 31 | 28 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 4 | 1 | – | ||
| Min – Max | 31–35 | 23–28 | 10–13 | 10–11 | 11–13 | 3–4 | – | – | |||
For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.
Who came closest before the 2021 election?
Deviation of each pollster's last poll from the result, by party in points. Ranked by mean absolute deviation.
| Pollster | Poll dated | Grüne | CDU | SPD | FDP | AfD | Linke | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result 14 Mar 2021 | 32.6% | 24.1% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 3.6% | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 11 Mar 2021 (3 days before) | +1.4 | -0.1 | -1.0 | +0.5 | +1.3 | -0.6 | 0.8 |
| Infratest dimap | 4 Mar 2021 (10 days before) | +0.4 | +0.9 | -1.0 | -0.5 | +2.3 | +0.4 | 0.9 |
| INSA | 12 Mar 2021 (2 days before) | -0.6 | -1.1 | ±0 | +0.5 | +3.3 | +0.4 | 1.0 |
| Civey | 10 Mar 2021 (4 days before) | -0.6 | -0.1 | +2.0 | -0.5 | +2.3 | +0.4 | 1.0 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 4 Mar 2021 (10 days before) | +0.4 | -1.1 | +1.5 | ±0 | +3.3 | -0.1 | 1.1 |
Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.