Baden-Württemberg state election 2021: the result
In the Baden-Württemberg state election on 14 March 2021, Grüne became the largest party with 32.6%, 8.5 points ahead of CDU (24.1%).
- Failed to clear the thresholdLinke (3.6%), Freie Wähler (3.0%), Piraten (0.1%)
- Polls one week beforeoff by 0.7 points per party on average, AfD overestimated by 2.1
- Statusofficial final result
Result of the 2021 state election
Shares in percent. Parties below one percent are grouped as Others.
- Grüne32.6%
- CDU24.1%
- SPD11.0%
- FDP10.5%
- AfD9.7%
- Linke3.6%
- Freie Wähler3.0%
- Piraten0.1%
- Others5.4%
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%.
| Party | 2021 | Seats (projected) |
|---|---|---|
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | 32.6% | 45 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union | 24.1% | 33 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands | 11.0% | 15 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei | 10.5% | 14 |
| Alternative für Deutschland | 9.7% | 13 |
| Die Linke | 3.6% | – |
| Freie Wähler | 3.0% | – |
| Piratenpartei | 0.1% | – |
| Others | 5.4% | – |
Source: state returning officer, compiled via wahlrecht.de. Seats projected by Sainte-Laguë/Schepers on 120 regular seats, without overhang and compensatory seats. JSON · CSV
Seat distribution in the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg after the 2021 result
120 regular seats by Sainte-Laguë/Schepers. Electoral threshold of 5%. The actual size of the parliament may differ due to overhang and compensatory seats.
- Grüne45
- CDU33
- SPD15
- FDP14
- AfD13
Which alliances had a majority after the 2021 election
All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority.
- Grüne + CDU78 of 120
- Grüne + SPD + FDP74 of 120
- Grüne + SPD + AfD73 of 120
- Grüne + FDP + AfD72 of 120
- CDU + SPD + FDP62 of 120
- CDU + SPD + AfD61 of 120
The polls in the last 30 days before the 2021 state election
8 polls between 13 Feb 2021 and 12 Mar 2021, each one available individually.
| Pollster | Published | Grüne | CDU | SPD | FDP | AfD | Linke | Freie Wähler | Piraten |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 12 Mar 2021 | 32 | 23 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 4 | – | – |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 11 Mar 2021 | 34 | 24 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 3 | – | – |
| Civey | 10 Mar 2021 | 32 | 24 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 4 | – | – |
| INSA | 10 Mar 2021 | 32 | 25 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 3 | 2 | – |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5 Mar 2021 | 35 | 24 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 3 | – | – |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 4 Mar 2021 | 33 | 23 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 13 | 3.5 | – | – |
| Infratest dimap | 4 Mar 2021 | 33 | 25 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 4 | – | – |
| INSA | 13 Feb 2021 | 31 | 28 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 4 | 1 | – |
Who came closest before the 2021 election?
Deviation of each pollster's last poll from the result, by party in points. Ranked by mean absolute deviation.
| Pollster | Poll dated | Grüne | CDU | SPD | FDP | AfD | Linke | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result 14 Mar 2021 | 32.6% | 24.1% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 3.6% | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 11 Mar 2021 (3 days before) | +1.4 | -0.1 | -1.0 | +0.5 | +1.3 | -0.6 | 0.8 |
| Infratest dimap | 4 Mar 2021 (10 days before) | +0.4 | +0.9 | -1.0 | -0.5 | +2.3 | +0.4 | 0.9 |
| INSA | 12 Mar 2021 (2 days before) | -0.6 | -1.1 | ±0 | +0.5 | +3.3 | +0.4 | 1.0 |
| Civey | 10 Mar 2021 (4 days before) | -0.6 | -0.1 | +2.0 | -0.5 | +2.3 | +0.4 | 1.0 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 4 Mar 2021 (10 days before) | +0.4 | -1.1 | +1.5 | ±0 | +3.3 | -0.1 | 1.1 |
Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.