Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 27 October 2023 for the Baden-Württemberg state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 23 to 27 Oct 2023
- Respondents
- 1,100
- Method
- Online
- CDU30.0%+6.0
- AfD22.0%+1.0
- Grüne20.0%-5.5
- SPD10.0%-1.0
- FDP7.0%±0
- Freie Wähler3.0%±0
- Linke1.5%-0.5
- Others6.5%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 24 Jul 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 1,100 people were surveyed from 23 to 27 Oct 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 24 Jul 2023, CDU gains 6.0 points, Grüne loses 5.5 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD 2.0 points higher and Grüne 2.0 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 27 Oct 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +2.0average 20.0
- Grüne -2.0average 22.0
- SPD -2.0average 12.0
- Linke -1.5average 3.0
- CDU +1.0average 29.0
- FDP -1.0average 8.0
Seat projection from this poll
120 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CDU40
- AfD30
- Grüne27
- SPD14
- FDP9
- CDU + AfD70 of 120
- CDU + Grüne67 of 120
- AfD + Grüne + SPD71 of 120
- AfD + Grüne + FDP66 of 120
- CDU + SPD + FDP63 of 120
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.