Single poll

Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 27 October 2023 for the Baden-Württemberg state election

Commissioned by
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Fieldwork period
23 to 27 Oct 2023
Respondents
1,100
Method
Online
  • CDU30.0%+6.0
  • AfD22.0%+1.0
  • Grüne20.0%-5.5
  • SPD10.0%-1.0
  • FDP7.0%±0
  • Freie Wähler3.0%±0
  • Linke1.5%-0.5
  • Others6.5%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 24 Jul 2023.

In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 1,100 people were surveyed from 23 to 27 Oct 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.

Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 24 Jul 2023, CDU gains 6.0 points, Grüne loses 5.5 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD 2.0 points higher and Grüne 2.0 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 27 Oct 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +2.0average 20.0
  • Grüne -2.0average 22.0
  • SPD -2.0average 12.0
  • Linke -1.5average 3.0
  • CDU +1.0average 29.0
  • FDP -1.0average 8.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

120 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CDU: 40 seatsAfD: 30 seatsGrüne: 27 seatsSPD: 14 seatsFDP: 9 seatsMajority from 61120of 120 seats
  • CDU40
  • AfD30
  • Grüne27
  • SPD14
  • FDP9
  • CDU + AfD70 of 120
  • CDU + Grüne67 of 120
  • AfD + Grüne + SPD71 of 120
  • AfD + Grüne + FDP66 of 120
  • CDU + SPD + FDP63 of 120
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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