Single poll

Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 12 May 2025 for the Baden-Württemberg state election

Commissioned by
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Fieldwork period
3 to 10 May 2025
Respondents
1,100
Method
Online
  • CDU26.0%-4.0
  • Grüne23.0%+3.0
  • AfD23.0%+1.0
  • SPD12.5%+2.5
  • Linke5.5%+4.0
  • FDP4.5%-2.5
  • BSW1.5%
  • Others4.0%-2.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 27 Oct 2023.

In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU ahead on 26.0%, followed by Grüne on 23.0%. 1,100 people were surveyed from 3 to 10 May 2025, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.

Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 27 Oct 2023, CDU loses 4.0 points, Linke gains 4.0 points, Grüne gains 3.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has Grüne 6.0 points higher and CDU 5.0 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 12 May 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne +6.0average 17.0
  • CDU -5.0average 31.0
  • AfD +4.0average 19.0
  • Linke -2.5average 8.0
  • BSW -2.5average 4.0
  • FDP -1.5average 6.0
  • SPD +0.5average 12.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

120 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CDU: 34 seatsGrüne: 31 seatsAfD: 31 seatsSPD: 17 seatsLinke: 7 seatsMajority from 61120of 120 seats
  • CDU34
  • Grüne31
  • AfD31
  • SPD17
  • Linke7
  • CDU + Grüne65 of 120
  • CDU + AfD65 of 120
  • Grüne + AfD62 of 120
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.