Single poll

Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 24 July 2023 for the Baden-Württemberg state election

Commissioned by
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Fieldwork period
17 to 24 Jul 2023
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • Grüne25.5%-2.5
  • CDU24.0%-8.0
  • AfD21.0%+8.0
  • SPD11.0%+1.0
  • FDP7.0%+0.5
  • Freie Wähler3.0%±0
  • Linke2.0%±0
  • Others6.5%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 13 Mar 2023.

In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has Grüne ahead on 25.5%, followed by CDU on 24.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 17 to 24 Jul 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.

Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 13 Mar 2023, CDU loses 8.0 points, AfD gains 8.0 points, Grüne loses 2.5 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD 5.5 points higher and CDU 2.5 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 24 Jul 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +5.5average 15.5
  • CDU -2.5average 26.5
  • SPD -2.0average 13.0
  • FDP -1.0average 8.0
  • Linke -1.0average 3.0
  • Grüne -0.5average 26.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

120 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

Grüne: 35 seatsCDU: 33 seatsAfD: 28 seatsSPD: 15 seatsFDP: 9 seatsMajority from 61120of 120 seats
  • Grüne35
  • CDU33
  • AfD28
  • SPD15
  • FDP9
  • Grüne + CDU68 of 120
  • Grüne + AfD63 of 120
  • CDU + AfD61 of 120
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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