Single poll

INSA poll of 11 October 2024 for the Baden-Württemberg state election

Commissioned by
Schwäbische Zeitung
Fieldwork period
26 Sep 2024 to 4 Oct 2024
Respondents
2,000
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU32.0%+1.0
  • Grüne18.0%-1.0
  • AfD18.0%+2.0
  • SPD13.0%+2.0
  • FDP6.0%-1.0
  • BSW6.0%-2.0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Others4.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 15 Aug 2024.

In this poll INSA has CDU ahead on 32.0%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 2,000 people were surveyed from 26 Sep 2024 to 4 Oct 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by Schwäbische Zeitung.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 15 Aug 2024, AfD gains 2.0 points, SPD gains 2.0 points, BSW loses 2.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU 2.0 points lower and AfD 2.0 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 11 Oct 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU -2.0average 34.0
  • AfD +2.0average 16.0
  • FDP +1.0average 5.0
  • BSW +1.0average 5.0
  • Grüne ±0average 18.0
  • SPD ±0average 13.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

120 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CDU: 41 seatsGrüne: 23 seatsAfD: 23 seatsSPD: 17 seatsFDP: 8 seatsBSW: 8 seatsMajority from 61120of 120 seats
  • CDU41
  • Grüne23
  • AfD23
  • SPD17
  • FDP8
  • BSW8
  • CDU + Grüne64 of 120
  • CDU + AfD64 of 120
  • CDU + SPD + FDP66 of 120
  • CDU + SPD + BSW66 of 120
  • Grüne + AfD + SPD63 of 120
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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