Single poll

Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 23 October 2022 for the Baden-Württemberg state election

Commissioned by
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Fieldwork period
16 to 22 Oct 2022
Respondents
1,014
Method
Online
  • Grüne27.5%-3.0
  • CDU22.0%-2.0
  • AfD16.0%+4.0
  • SPD15.0%+2.0
  • FDP8.0%-2.0
  • Freie Wähler4.0%
  • Linke3.0%+0.5
  • Others4.5%-3.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 16 Aug 2022.

In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has Grüne ahead on 27.5%, followed by CDU on 22.0%. 1,014 people were surveyed from 16 to 22 Oct 2022, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.

Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 16 Aug 2022, AfD gains 4.0 points, Grüne loses 3.0 points, CDU loses 2.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD 6.5 points higher and CDU 4.0 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 23 Oct 2022. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +6.5average 9.5
  • CDU -4.0average 26.0
  • FDP -3.0average 11.0
  • Grüne -1.0average 28.5
  • SPD +0.5average 14.5
  • Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

120 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

Grüne: 37 seatsCDU: 30 seatsAfD: 22 seatsSPD: 20 seatsFDP: 11 seatsMajority from 61120of 120 seats
  • Grüne37
  • CDU30
  • AfD22
  • SPD20
  • FDP11
  • Grüne + CDU67 of 120
  • Grüne + AfD + SPD79 of 120
  • CDU + AfD + SPD72 of 120
  • Grüne + AfD + FDP70 of 120
  • Grüne + SPD + FDP68 of 120
  • CDU + AfD + FDP63 of 120
  • CDU + SPD + FDP61 of 120
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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