Single poll

INSA poll of 21 March 2024 for the Baden-Württemberg state election

Commissioned by
Schwäbische Zeitung
Fieldwork period
4 to 11 Mar 2024
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • CDU30.0%+3.0
  • Grüne23.0%-5.0
  • AfD16.0%+4.0
  • SPD11.0%-2.0
  • FDP7.0%-2.0
  • BSW7.0%
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Others3.0%-5.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 3 Apr 2023.

In this poll INSA has CDU ahead on 30.0%, followed by Grüne on 23.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 4 to 11 Mar 2024, method Online, commissioned by Schwäbische Zeitung.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 3 Apr 2023, Grüne loses 5.0 points, AfD gains 4.0 points, CDU gains 3.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 4.0 points lower and Grüne 2.0 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Mar 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD -4.0average 20.0
  • Grüne +2.0average 21.0
  • SPD +1.5average 9.5
  • Linke +1.5average 1.5
  • CDU -1.0average 31.0
  • FDP ±0average 7.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

120 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CDU: 38 seatsGrüne: 29 seatsAfD: 21 seatsSPD: 14 seatsFDP: 9 seatsBSW: 9 seatsMajority from 61120of 120 seats
  • CDU38
  • Grüne29
  • AfD21
  • SPD14
  • FDP9
  • BSW9
  • CDU + Grüne67 of 120
  • CDU + AfD + SPD73 of 120
  • CDU + AfD + FDP68 of 120
  • CDU + AfD + BSW68 of 120
  • Grüne + AfD + SPD64 of 120
  • CDU + SPD + FDP61 of 120
  • CDU + SPD + BSW61 of 120
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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