Trend Research Hamburg poll of 1 November 2023 for the Hamburg state election
- Commissioned by
- Hamburger Abendblatt
- Fieldwork period
- 17 to 24 Oct 2023
- Respondents
- 1,068
- Method
- Online
- SPD31.0%-2.0
- Grüne19.0%-5.0
- CDU18.0%+4.0
- AfD14.0%+7.0
- Linke10.0%±0
- FDP4.0%-3.0
- Others4.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Trend Research Hamburg poll of 10 Feb 2020.
In this poll Trend Research Hamburg has SPD ahead on 31.0%, followed by Grüne on 19.0%. 1,068 people were surveyed from 17 to 24 Oct 2023, method Online, commissioned by Hamburger Abendblatt.
Compared with the previous Trend Research Hamburg poll of 10 Feb 2020, AfD gains 7.0 points, Grüne loses 5.0 points, CDU gains 4.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Trend Research Hamburg has SPD 6.5 points higher and CDU 3.0 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 180-day average of the other pollsters on 1 Nov 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD +6.5average 24.5
- CDU -3.0average 21.0
- Grüne -2.5average 21.5
- Linke +1.5average 8.5
- AfD +1.0average 13.0
- FDP +1.0average 3.0
Seat projection from this poll
121 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency.
- SPD41
- Grüne25
- CDU24
- AfD18
- Linke13
- SPD + Grüne66 of 121
- SPD + CDU65 of 121
- SPD + AfD + Linke72 of 121
- Grüne + CDU + AfD67 of 121
- Grüne + CDU + Linke62 of 121
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.