Forsa poll of 31 October 2024 for the Hamburg state election
- Commissioned by
- Hamburger Abendblatt
- Fieldwork period
- 24 to 28 Oct 2024
- Respondents
- 1,017
- Method
- Online
- SPD30.0%+1.0
- Grüne21.0%-5.0
- CDU21.0%+5.0
- AfD8.0%+1.0
- Linke5.0%-5.0
- FDP4.0%-3.0
- BSW4.0%
- Others7.0%+2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 6 Jan 2020.
In this poll Forsa has SPD ahead on 30.0%, followed by Grüne on 21.0%. 1,017 people were surveyed from 24 to 28 Oct 2024, method Online, commissioned by Hamburger Abendblatt.
Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 6 Jan 2020, Grüne loses 5.0 points, CDU gains 5.0 points, Linke loses 5.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has BSW 2.0 points higher and CDU 1.7 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 180-day average of the other pollsters on 31 Oct 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW +2.0average 2.0
- CDU +1.7average 19.3
- Linke -1.5average 6.5
- SPD -1.0average 31.0
- AfD -0.8average 8.8
- Grüne -0.3average 21.3
- FDP -0.3average 4.3
Seat projection from this poll
121 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency.
- SPD43
- Grüne30
- CDU30
- AfD11
- Linke7
- SPD + Grüne73 of 121
- SPD + CDU73 of 121
- Grüne + CDU + AfD71 of 121
- Grüne + CDU + Linke67 of 121
- SPD + AfD + Linke61 of 121
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.