Hamburg state election 2020: the result
In the Hamburg state election on 23 February 2020, SPD became the largest party with 39.2%, 15 points ahead of Grüne (24.2%).
- Failed to clear the threshold
- AfD (5.3%), Piraten (0.5%)
- Polls one week before
- off by 2.5 points per party on average, SPD underestimated by 7.2
- Turnout
- 57.3%
- Status
- official final result
Result of the 2020 state election
Turnout in the Hamburg state election on 23 February 2020 was 57.3%. The Hamburg Bürgerschaft has 121 seats; a majority needs 61.
Shares in percent. Parties below one percent are grouped as Others.
| Party | Votes 2020 (%) | Seats |
|---|---|---|
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands | 39.2% | 62 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | 24.2% | 14 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union | 11.2% | 28 |
| Die Linke | 9.1% | 8 |
| Alternative für Deutschland | 5.3% | – |
| Freie Demokratische Partei | 5.0% | 9 |
| Piratenpartei | 0.5% | – |
| Others | 5.5% | – |
Source: state returning officer, compiled via wahlrecht.de. Official seats, 121 in total including overhang and compensatory seats. JSON · CSV
Seat distribution in the Hamburg Bürgerschaft after the 2020 result
121 seats by the official result, including overhang and compensatory seats. Electoral threshold of 5%.
- SPD62
- CDU28
- Grüne14
- FDP9
- Linke8
Which alliances had a majority after the 2020 election
All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority.
- SPD + CDU90 of 121
- SPD + Grüne76 of 121
- SPD + FDP71 of 121
- SPD + Linke70 of 121
The polls in the last 30 days before the 2020 state election
8 polls between 6 Feb 2020 and 20 Feb 2020, each one available individually.
| Pollster | Published | SPD | Grüne | CDU | Linke | AfD | FDP | Piraten | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 20 Feb 2020 | 39 | 24 | 12 | 8.5 | 6 | 5 | – | ||
| Universität Hamburg | 20 Feb 2020 | 34 | 32 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 6 | – | ||
| Civey | 19 Feb 2020 | 35.4 | 24.5 | 13.8 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 5.2 | – | ||
| INSA | 19 Feb 2020 | 38 | 23 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 5 | – | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 14 Feb 2020 | 37 | 25 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 4.5 | – | ||
| Infratest dimap | 13 Feb 2020 | 38 | 23 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 5 | – | ||
| Trend Research Hamburg | 10 Feb 2020 | 33 | 24 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 7 | – | ||
| Infratest dimap | 6 Feb 2020 | 34 | 27 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 5 | – | ||
| Min – Max | 33–39 | 23–32 | 12–14 | 7–10 | 5–7.9 | 4.5–7 | – | |||
For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.
Last poll before the election: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 20 Feb 2020
Who came closest before the 2020 election?
Deviation of each pollster's last poll from the result, by party in points. Ranked by mean absolute deviation.
| Pollster | Poll dated | SPD | Grüne | CDU | Linke | AfD | FDP | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result 23 Feb 2020 | 39.2% | 24.2% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 20 Feb 2020 (3 days before) | -0.2 | -0.2 | +0.8 | -0.6 | +0.7 | ±0 | 0.4 |
| INSA | 19 Feb 2020 (4 days before) | -1.2 | -1.2 | +1.8 | -1.1 | +1.7 | ±0 | 1.2 |
| Infratest dimap | 13 Feb 2020 (10 days before) | -1.2 | -1.2 | +2.8 | -1.1 | +0.7 | ±0 | 1.2 |
| Civey | 19 Feb 2020 (4 days before) | -3.8 | +0.3 | +2.6 | -0.5 | +2.6 | +0.2 | 1.7 |
| Trend Research Hamburg | 10 Feb 2020 (13 days before) | -6.2 | -0.2 | +2.8 | +0.9 | +1.7 | +2.0 | 2.3 |
| Universität Hamburg | 20 Feb 2020 (3 days before) | -5.2 | +7.8 | +0.8 | -2.1 | -0.3 | +1.0 | 2.9 |
Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.