Single poll

Universität Hamburg poll of 20 February 2020 for the Hamburg state election

Commissioned by
Universität Hamburg
Fieldwork period
2 to 14 Feb 2020
Respondents
1,004
Method
Telefonisch
  • SPD34.0%-1.0
  • Grüne32.0%+3.0
  • CDU12.0%-3.0
  • Linke7.0%-2.0
  • FDP6.0%±0
  • AfD5.0%+1.0
  • Others5.0%+2.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Universität Hamburg poll of 20 Mar 2019.

In this poll Universität Hamburg has SPD ahead on 34.0%, followed by Grüne on 32.0%. 1,004 people were surveyed from 2 to 14 Feb 2020, method Telefonisch, commissioned by Universität Hamburg.

Compared with the previous Universität Hamburg poll of 20 Mar 2019, Grüne gains 3.0 points, CDU loses 3.0 points, Linke loses 2.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Universität Hamburg has Grüne 7.9 points higher and Linke 1.9 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 180-day average of the other pollsters on 20 Feb 2020. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne +7.9average 24.1
  • Linke -1.9average 8.9
  • CDU -1.8average 13.8
  • AfD -1.8average 6.8
  • SPD -1.4average 35.4
  • FDP +0.3average 5.7
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

121 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency.

SPD: 43 seatsGrüne: 40 seatsCDU: 15 seatsLinke: 9 seatsFDP: 8 seatsAfD: 6 seatsMajority from 61121of 121 seats
  • SPD43
  • Grüne40
  • CDU15
  • Linke9
  • FDP8
  • AfD6
  • SPD + Grüne83 of 121
  • SPD + CDU + Linke67 of 121
  • SPD + CDU + FDP66 of 121
  • SPD + CDU + AfD64 of 121
  • Grüne + CDU + Linke64 of 121
  • Grüne + CDU + FDP63 of 121
  • Grüne + CDU + AfD61 of 121
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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