Hamburg state election 2025: the result
In the Hamburg state election on 2 March 2025, SPD became the largest party with 33.5%, 13.7 points ahead of CDU (19.8%). SPD and Grüne have governed since then; how the alliance stands in the polls today is shown on the page with the current election polls. Preliminary result from the state returning officer; the official final result will be added.
- Biggest move since 2020
- CDU +8.6 · SPD −5.7 · Grüne −5.7
- Failed to clear the threshold
- Volt (3.2%), FDP (2.3%), BSW (1.8%)
- Government
- SPD + Grüne: 70 of 121 seats
- Polls one week before
- off by 1.6 points per party on average, Linke underestimated by 3.7
- Turnout
- 67.7%
- Status
- preliminary result
Result of the 2025 state election
Turnout in the Hamburg state election on 2 March 2025 was 67.7%. The Hamburg Bürgerschaft has 121 seats; a majority needs 61.
Shares in percent, change on the election of 23 Feb 2020 in points. Parties below one percent are grouped as Others.
| Party | Votes 2025 (%) | 2020 (%) | Change | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands | 33.5% | 39.2% | -5.7 | 45 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union | 19.8% | 11.2% | +8.6 | 26 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | 18.5% | 24.2% | -5.7 | 25 |
| Die Linke | 11.2% | 9.1% | +2.1 | 15 |
| Alternative für Deutschland | 7.5% | 5.3% | +2.2 | 10 |
| Volt Deutschland | 3.2% | – | new | – |
| Freie Demokratische Partei | 2.3% | 5.0% | -2.7 | – |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht | 1.8% | – | new | – |
| Others | 2.2% | 6.0% | -3.8 | – |
Source: state returning officer, compiled via wahlrecht.de. Official seats, 121 in total including overhang and compensatory seats. JSON · CSV
Seat distribution in the Hamburg Bürgerschaft after the 2025 result
121 seats by the official result, including overhang and compensatory seats. Electoral threshold of 5%.
- SPD45
- CDU26
- Grüne25
- Linke15
- AfD10
Which alliances had a majority after the 2025 election
All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority; the coalition actually formed is highlighted.
- SPD + CDU71 of 121
- SPD + GrüneGovernment70 of 121
- SPD + Linke + AfD70 of 121
- CDU + Grüne + Linke66 of 121
- CDU + Grüne + AfD61 of 121
The polls in the last 30 days before the 2025 state election
6 polls between 5 Feb 2025 and 1 Mar 2025, each one available individually.
| Pollster | Published | SPD | CDU | Grüne | Linke | AfD | Volt | FDP | BSW | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 1 Mar 2025 | 33.5 | 18 | 16.5 | 14 | 9 | – | 2.5 | 2.5 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 27 Feb 2025 | 33 | 18 | 17 | 12 | 9 | 3 | – | – | ||
| INSA | 27 Feb 2025 | 32 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 11 | – | 3 | 3 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 20 Feb 2025 | 32 | 17 | 18 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 14 Feb 2025 | 32 | 18 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 5 Feb 2025 | 31 | 18 | 20 | 8 | 9 | – | 3 | 3 | ||
| Min – Max | 31–33.5 | 17–18 | 16–20 | 8–14 | 9–11 | 3–3 | 2.5–3 | 2.5–3 | |||
For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.
Last poll before the election: Institut Wahlkreisprognose, 1 Mar 2025
Who came closest before the 2025 election?
Deviation of each pollster's last poll from the result, by party in points. Ranked by mean absolute deviation.
| Pollster | Poll dated | SPD | CDU | Grüne | Linke | AfD | Volt | FDP | BSW | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result 2 Mar 2025(preliminary) | 33.5% | 19.8% | 18.5% | 11.2% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 27 Feb 2025 (3 days before) | -0.5 | -1.8 | -1.5 | +0.8 | +1.5 | -0.2 | – | – | 1.1 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 1 Mar 2025 (1 day before) | ±0 | -1.8 | -2.0 | +2.8 | +1.5 | – | +0.2 | +0.7 | 1.3 |
| Infratest dimap | 20 Feb 2025 (10 days before) | -1.5 | -2.8 | -0.5 | -1.2 | +2.5 | -0.2 | +0.7 | +1.2 | 1.3 |
| INSA | 27 Feb 2025 (3 days before) | -1.5 | -2.8 | -2.5 | +1.8 | +3.5 | – | +0.7 | +1.2 | 2.0 |
Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.