Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 14 February 2025 for the Hamburg state election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
10 to 13 Feb 2025
Respondents
1,055
Method
Telefon & Online
  • SPD32.0%-7.0
  • Grüne19.0%-5.0
  • CDU18.0%+6.0
  • Linke9.0%+0.5
  • AfD9.0%+3.0
  • FDP3.0%-2.0
  • Volt3.0%
  • BSW3.0%
  • Others4.0%-1.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 20 Feb 2020.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has SPD ahead on 32.0%, followed by Grüne on 19.0%. 1,055 people were surveyed from 10 to 13 Feb 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 20 Feb 2020, SPD loses 7.0 points, CDU gains 6.0 points, Grüne loses 5.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has Linke 2.7 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 180-day average of the other pollsters on 14 Feb 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Linke +2.7average 6.3
  • Grüne -1.3average 20.3
  • SPD +0.3average 31.7
  • CDU -0.3average 18.3
  • AfD -0.3average 9.3
  • FDP -0.3average 3.3
  • BSW -0.3average 3.3
  • Volt ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

121 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency.

SPD: 44 seatsGrüne: 26 seatsCDU: 25 seatsLinke: 13 seatsAfD: 13 seatsMajority from 61121of 121 seats
  • SPD44
  • Grüne26
  • CDU25
  • Linke13
  • AfD13
  • SPD + Grüne70 of 121
  • SPD + CDU69 of 121
  • SPD + Linke + AfD70 of 121
  • Grüne + CDU + Linke64 of 121
  • Grüne + CDU + AfD64 of 121
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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