Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 1 March 2025 for the Hamburg state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 26 to 28 Feb 2025
- Respondents
- 800
- Method
- Online
- SPD33.5%+1.5
- CDU18.0%-0.5
- Grüne16.5%-5.0
- Linke14.0%+8.0
- AfD9.0%+0.5
- FDP2.5%-1.0
- BSW2.5%+0.5
- Others4.0%-4.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 29 Apr 2024.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD ahead on 33.5%, followed by CDU on 18.0%. 800 people were surveyed from 26 to 28 Feb 2025, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 29 Apr 2024, Linke gains 8.0 points, Grüne loses 5.0 points, SPD gains 1.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has Linke 5.4 points higher and Grüne 2.3 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 180-day average of the other pollsters on 1 Mar 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Linke +5.4average 8.6
- Grüne -2.3average 18.8
- SPD +1.5average 32.0
- AfD -0.8average 9.8
- FDP -0.7average 3.2
- BSW -0.7average 3.2
- CDU +0.2average 17.8
Seat projection from this poll
121 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency.
- SPD44
- CDU24
- Grüne22
- Linke19
- AfD12
- SPD + CDU68 of 121
- SPD + Grüne66 of 121
- SPD + Linke63 of 121
- CDU + Grüne + Linke65 of 121
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.