Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 29 April 2024 for the Hamburg state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 15 to 25 Apr 2024
- Respondents
- 1,304
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- SPD32.0%+7.5
- Grüne21.5%±0
- CDU18.5%-2.5
- AfD8.5%-4.5
- Linke6.0%-2.5
- FDP3.5%+0.5
- BSW2.0%
- Others8.0%-0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 2 Oct 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD ahead on 32.0%, followed by Grüne on 21.5%. 1,304 people were surveyed from 15 to 25 Apr 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 2 Oct 2023, SPD gains 7.5 points, AfD loses 4.5 points, CDU loses 2.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD 3.0 points lower and Linke 2.5 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 180-day average of the other pollsters on 29 Apr 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD -3.0average 11.5
- Linke -2.5average 8.5
- SPD +1.5average 30.5
- Grüne +1.5average 20.0
- FDP -1.0average 4.5
- CDU -0.5average 19.0
Seat projection from this poll
121 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency.
- SPD45
- Grüne30
- CDU26
- AfD12
- Linke8
- SPD + Grüne75 of 121
- SPD + CDU71 of 121
- Grüne + CDU + AfD68 of 121
- SPD + AfD + Linke65 of 121
- Grüne + CDU + Linke64 of 121
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.