Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 2 October 2023 for the Hamburg state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 24 Sep 2023 to 2 Oct 2023
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- SPD24.5%-7.5
- Grüne21.5%-5.5
- CDU21.0%+6.0
- AfD13.0%+6.0
- Linke8.5%+0.5
- FDP3.0%-3.0
- Others8.5%+3.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 16 Sep 2022.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD ahead on 24.5%, followed by Grüne on 21.5%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 24 Sep 2023 to 2 Oct 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 16 Sep 2022, SPD loses 7.5 points, CDU gains 6.0 points, AfD gains 6.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has Grüne 8.5 points lower and AfD 8.0 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 180-day average of the other pollsters on 2 Oct 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -8.5average 30.0
- AfD +8.0average 5.0
- SPD -4.5average 29.0
- Linke +3.5average 5.0
- CDU +1.0average 20.0
- FDP -1.0average 4.0
Seat projection from this poll
121 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency.
- SPD33
- Grüne29
- CDU29
- AfD18
- Linke12
- SPD + Grüne62 of 121
- SPD + CDU62 of 121
- Grüne + CDU + AfD76 of 121
- Grüne + CDU + Linke70 of 121
- SPD + AfD + Linke63 of 121
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.