Single poll

Infratest dimap poll of 17 December 2019 for the Hamburg state election

Commissioned by
NDR
Fieldwork period
11 to 16 Dec 2019
Respondents
1,004
Method
Telefonisch
  • SPD28.0%-3.0
  • Grüne26.0%+4.0
  • CDU17.0%±0
  • Linke11.0%+1.0
  • AfD7.0%-1.0
  • FDP6.0%-2.0
  • Others5.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Infratest dimap poll of 25 Feb 2019.

In this poll Infratest dimap has SPD ahead on 28.0%, followed by Grüne on 26.0%. 1,004 people were surveyed from 11 to 16 Dec 2019, method Telefonisch, commissioned by NDR.

Compared with the previous Infratest dimap poll of 25 Feb 2019, Grüne gains 4.0 points, SPD loses 3.0 points, FDP loses 2.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Infratest dimap has Grüne 2.3 points higher and FDP 2.0 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 180-day average of the other pollsters on 17 Dec 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne +2.3average 23.7
  • FDP -2.0average 8.0
  • CDU +1.7average 15.3
  • AfD -1.7average 8.7
  • SPD -1.0average 29.0
  • Linke -0.7average 11.7
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

121 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency.

SPD: 35 seatsGrüne: 33 seatsCDU: 22 seatsLinke: 14 seatsAfD: 9 seatsFDP: 8 seatsMajority from 61121of 121 seats
  • SPD35
  • Grüne33
  • CDU22
  • Linke14
  • AfD9
  • FDP8
  • SPD + Grüne68 of 121
  • SPD + CDU + Linke71 of 121
  • Grüne + CDU + Linke69 of 121
  • SPD + CDU + AfD66 of 121
  • SPD + CDU + FDP65 of 121
  • Grüne + CDU + AfD64 of 121
  • Grüne + CDU + FDP63 of 121
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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