Single poll

Civey poll of 21 January 2020 for the Hamburg state election

Commissioned by
DER SPIEGEL
Fieldwork period
23 Dec 2019 to 20 Jan 2020
Respondents
2,015
Method
Online
  • SPD30.2%-0.2
  • Grüne24.9%+0.8
  • CDU15.7%+2.1
  • Linke8.6%-5.1
  • FDP7.2%-0.2
  • AfD6.9%-0.6
  • Others6.5%+3.2

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 20 Dec 2019.

In this poll Civey has SPD ahead on 30.2%, followed by Grüne on 24.9%. 2,015 people were surveyed from 23 Dec 2019 to 20 Jan 2020, method Online, commissioned by DER SPIEGEL.

Compared with the previous Civey poll of 20 Dec 2019, Linke loses 5.1 points, CDU gains 2.1 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has Linke 2.9 points lower and SPD 1.7 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 180-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Jan 2020. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Linke -2.9average 11.5
  • SPD +1.7average 28.5
  • AfD -0.6average 7.5
  • Grüne -0.4average 25.3
  • CDU -0.1average 15.8
  • FDP -0.1average 7.3
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

121 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency.

SPD: 39 seatsGrüne: 33 seatsCDU: 20 seatsLinke: 11 seatsFDP: 9 seatsAfD: 9 seatsMajority from 61121of 121 seats
  • SPD39
  • Grüne33
  • CDU20
  • Linke11
  • FDP9
  • AfD9
  • SPD + Grüne72 of 121
  • SPD + CDU + Linke70 of 121
  • SPD + CDU + FDP68 of 121
  • SPD + CDU + AfD68 of 121
  • Grüne + CDU + Linke64 of 121
  • Grüne + CDU + FDP62 of 121
  • Grüne + CDU + AfD62 of 121
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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