Single poll

Trend Research Hamburg poll of 18 November 2019 for the Hamburg state election

Commissioned by
Radio Hamburg
Fieldwork period
5 to 10 Nov 2019
Respondents
652
Method
Online
  • SPD32.0%+4.0
  • Grüne23.0%-5.0
  • CDU13.0%-1.0
  • Linke12.0%+1.0
  • AfD8.0%-1.0
  • FDP7.0%+1.0
  • Others4.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Trend Research Hamburg poll of 17 Sep 2019.

In this poll Trend Research Hamburg has SPD ahead on 32.0%, followed by Grüne on 23.0%. 652 people were surveyed from 5 to 10 Nov 2019, method Online, commissioned by Radio Hamburg.

Compared with the previous Trend Research Hamburg poll of 17 Sep 2019, Grüne loses 5.0 points, SPD gains 4.0 points, CDU loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Trend Research Hamburg has SPD 4.5 points higher and CDU 3.5 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 180-day average of the other pollsters on 18 Nov 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD +4.5average 27.5
  • CDU -3.5average 16.5
  • FDP -1.5average 8.5
  • Grüne -1.0average 24.0
  • AfD -1.0average 9.0
  • Linke +0.5average 11.5
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

121 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency.

SPD: 41 seatsGrüne: 29 seatsCDU: 17 seatsLinke: 15 seatsAfD: 10 seatsFDP: 9 seatsMajority from 61121of 121 seats
  • SPD41
  • Grüne29
  • CDU17
  • Linke15
  • AfD10
  • FDP9
  • SPD + Grüne70 of 121
  • SPD + CDU + Linke73 of 121
  • SPD + CDU + AfD68 of 121
  • SPD + CDU + FDP67 of 121
  • SPD + Linke + AfD66 of 121
  • SPD + Linke + FDP65 of 121
  • Grüne + CDU + Linke61 of 121
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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