Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 3 October 2023 for the Hesse state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 30 Sep 2023 to 3 Oct 2023
- Respondents
- 1,003
- Method
- Online
- CDU33.0%+2.5
- Grüne16.5%-1.5
- SPD16.0%±0
- AfD16.0%-1.5
- FDP5.5%+0.5
- Freie Wähler4.5%+0.5
- Linke3.0%+0.5
- Others5.5%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 26 Sep 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU ahead on 33.0%, followed by Grüne on 16.5%. 1,003 people were surveyed from 30 Sep 2023 to 3 Oct 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 26 Sep 2023, CDU gains 2.5 points, Grüne loses 1.5 points, AfD loses 1.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU 2.2 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 3 Oct 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU +2.2average 30.8
- Grüne -1.3average 17.8
- SPD -1.3average 17.3
- AfD +0.7average 15.3
- Freie Wähler +0.5average 4.0
- Linke -0.5average 3.5
- FDP -0.3average 5.8
Seat projection from this poll
110 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, electoral threshold 5%.
- CDU42
- Grüne21
- SPD20
- AfD20
- FDP7
- CDU + Grüne63 of 110
- CDU + SPD62 of 110
- CDU + AfD62 of 110
- Grüne + SPD + AfD61 of 110
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.