Single poll

INSA poll of 4 October 2023 for the Hesse state election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
25 Sep 2023 to 2 Oct 2023
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • CDU31.0%+2.0
  • SPD16.0%-4.0
  • Grüne16.0%-3.0
  • AfD16.0%+1.0
  • FDP5.0%-1.0
  • Freie Wähler5.0%+1.0
  • Linke4.0%+1.0
  • Others7.0%+3.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 13 Sep 2023.

In this poll INSA has CDU ahead on 31.0%, followed by SPD on 16.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 25 Sep 2023 to 2 Oct 2023, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 13 Sep 2023, SPD loses 4.0 points, Grüne loses 3.0 points, CDU gains 2.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Oct 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -1.1average 17.1
  • CDU -0.8average 31.8
  • Freie Wähler +0.8average 4.2
  • FDP -0.6average 5.6
  • AfD +0.5average 15.5
  • Linke +0.5average 3.5
  • SPD -0.3average 16.3
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

110 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, electoral threshold 5%.

CDU: 38 seatsSPD: 20 seatsGrüne: 20 seatsAfD: 20 seatsFDP: 6 seatsFreie Wähler: 6 seatsMajority from 56110of 110 seats
  • CDU38
  • SPD20
  • Grüne20
  • AfD20
  • FDP6
  • Freie Wähler6
  • CDU + SPD58 of 110
  • CDU + Grüne58 of 110
  • CDU + AfD58 of 110
  • SPD + Grüne + AfD60 of 110
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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