Single poll

Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 23 July 2023 for the Hesse state election

Commissioned by
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Fieldwork period
18 to 23 Jul 2023
Respondents
1,015
Method
Online
  • CDU25.5%-0.5
  • SPD20.0%±0
  • AfD20.0%+1.0
  • Grüne16.0%-2.0
  • Freie Wähler5.5%+2.0
  • FDP5.0%±0
  • Linke2.0%-0.5
  • Others6.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 1 Jul 2023.

In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU ahead on 25.5%, followed by SPD on 20.0%. 1,015 people were surveyed from 18 to 23 Jul 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.

Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 1 Jul 2023, Grüne loses 2.0 points, Freie Wähler gains 2.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD 8.0 points higher and CDU 5.0 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 23 Jul 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +8.0average 12.0
  • CDU -5.0average 30.5
  • Grüne -4.0average 20.0
  • Freie Wähler +2.5average 3.0
  • Linke -1.5average 3.5
  • SPD -1.0average 21.0
  • FDP -1.0average 6.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

110 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, electoral threshold 5%.

CDU: 30 seatsSPD: 24 seatsAfD: 24 seatsGrüne: 19 seatsFreie Wähler: 7 seatsFDP: 6 seatsMajority from 56110of 110 seats
  • CDU30
  • SPD24
  • AfD24
  • Grüne19
  • Freie Wähler7
  • FDP6
  • CDU + SPD + AfD78 of 110
  • CDU + SPD + Grüne73 of 110
  • CDU + AfD + Grüne73 of 110
  • SPD + AfD + Grüne67 of 110
  • CDU + SPD + Freie Wähler61 of 110
  • CDU + AfD + Freie Wähler61 of 110
  • CDU + SPD + FDP60 of 110
  • CDU + AfD + FDP60 of 110
  • CDU + Grüne + Freie Wähler56 of 110
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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