Single poll

Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 1 July 2023 for the Hesse state election

Commissioned by
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Fieldwork period
23 Jun 2023 to 1 Jul 2023
Respondents
1,400
Method
Online
  • CDU26.0%-3.0
  • SPD20.0%-3.5
  • AfD19.0%+6.0
  • Grüne18.0%+2.0
  • FDP5.0%-2.0
  • Freie Wähler3.5%+0.5
  • Linke2.5%+0.5
  • Others6.0%-0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 22 May 2023.

In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU ahead on 26.0%, followed by SPD on 20.0%. 1,400 people were surveyed from 23 Jun 2023 to 1 Jul 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.

Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 22 May 2023, AfD gains 6.0 points, SPD loses 3.5 points, CDU loses 3.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD 7.0 points higher and CDU 4.5 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 1 Jul 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +7.0average 12.0
  • CDU -4.5average 30.5
  • Grüne -2.0average 20.0
  • SPD -1.0average 21.0
  • FDP -1.0average 6.0
  • Linke -1.0average 3.5
  • Freie Wähler +0.5average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

110 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, electoral threshold 5%.

CDU: 32 seatsSPD: 25 seatsAfD: 24 seatsGrüne: 23 seatsFDP: 6 seatsMajority from 56110of 110 seats
  • CDU32
  • SPD25
  • AfD24
  • Grüne23
  • FDP6
  • CDU + SPD57 of 110
  • CDU + AfD56 of 110
  • SPD + AfD + Grüne72 of 110
  • CDU + Grüne + FDP61 of 110
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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