Single poll

INSA poll of 9 October 2025 for the Hesse state election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
30 Sep 2025 to 7 Oct 2025
Respondents
976
Method
Online
  • CDU32.0%+1.0
  • AfD20.0%+1.0
  • SPD15.0%+1.0
  • Grüne12.0%±0
  • Linke7.0%-2.0
  • FDP4.0%+1.0
  • Freie Wähler3.0%+1.0
  • BSW3.0%-2.0
  • Others4.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 25 Mar 2025.

In this poll INSA has CDU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 976 people were surveyed from 30 Sep 2025 to 7 Oct 2025, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 25 Mar 2025, Linke loses 2.0 points, BSW loses 2.0 points, CDU gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU 4.0 points lower and AfD 2.0 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 9 Oct 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU -4.0average 36.0
  • AfD +2.0average 18.0
  • SPD +2.0average 13.0
  • Grüne -2.0average 14.0
  • Linke +1.0average 6.0
  • FDP ±0average 4.0
  • BSW ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

110 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, electoral threshold 5%.

CDU: 41 seatsAfD: 26 seatsSPD: 19 seatsGrüne: 15 seatsLinke: 9 seatsMajority from 56110of 110 seats
  • CDU41
  • AfD26
  • SPD19
  • Grüne15
  • Linke9
  • CDU + AfD67 of 110
  • CDU + SPD60 of 110
  • CDU + Grüne56 of 110
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne60 of 110
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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