Forsa poll of 19 December 2024 for the Hesse state election
- Commissioned by
- Osthessen|News
- Fieldwork period
- 22 Nov 2024 to 11 Dec 2024
- Respondents
- 1,003
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU38.0%+5.0
- AfD16.0%+6.0
- SPD15.0%-8.0
- Grüne14.0%±0
- FDP3.0%-5.0
- Linke3.0%-4.0
- BSW3.0%
- Others8.0%+3.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 25 Feb 2018.
In this poll Forsa has CDU ahead on 38.0%, followed by AfD on 16.0%. 1,003 people were surveyed from 22 Nov 2024 to 11 Dec 2024, method Telefonisch, commissioned by Osthessen|News.
Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 25 Feb 2018, SPD loses 8.0 points, AfD gains 6.0 points, CDU gains 5.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has CDU 3.5 points higher and BSW 2.5 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 19 Dec 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU +3.5average 34.5
- BSW -2.5average 5.5
- FDP -2.0average 5.0
- AfD -1.0average 17.0
- SPD +1.0average 14.0
- Linke +1.0average 2.0
- Grüne ±0average 14.0
Seat projection from this poll
110 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, electoral threshold 5%.
- CDU50
- AfD21
- SPD20
- Grüne19
- CDU + AfD71 of 110
- CDU + SPD70 of 110
- CDU + Grüne69 of 110
- AfD + SPD + Grüne60 of 110
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.