Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 6 October 2023 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 3 to 6 Oct 2023
- Respondents
- 985
- Method
- Online
- CSU37.5%+0.5
- Grüne15.5%+0.5
- Freie Wähler15.0%±0
- AfD14.0%±0
- SPD8.0%+0.5
- FDP3.0%-1.0
- Linke1.0%-0.5
- Others6.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 4 Oct 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU ahead on 37.5%, followed by Grüne on 15.5%. 985 people were surveyed from 3 to 6 Oct 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 4 Oct 2023, FDP loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 6 Oct 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD -1.0average 9.0
- CSU +0.7average 36.8
- Grüne +0.7average 14.8
- FDP -0.7average 3.7
- Linke -0.5average 1.5
- Freie Wähler -0.3average 15.3
- AfD +0.2average 13.8
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU75
- Grüne31
- Freie Wähler30
- AfD28
- SPD16
- CSU + Grüne106 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler105 of 180
- CSU + AfD103 of 180
- CSU + SPD91 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.