Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 9 January 2025 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 3 to 6 Jan 2025
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- CSU42.0%+4.5
- AfD13.0%-1.0
- Grüne12.5%-3.0
- Freie Wähler12.0%-3.0
- SPD8.0%±0
- Others12.5%+6.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 6 Oct 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU ahead on 42.0%, followed by AfD on 13.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 3 to 6 Jan 2025, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 6 Oct 2023, CSU gains 4.5 points, Grüne loses 3.0 points, Freie Wähler loses 3.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has Grüne 1.8 points higher and AfD 1.7 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 9 Jan 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne +1.8average 10.7
- AfD -1.7average 14.7
- Freie Wähler +0.7average 11.3
- SPD +0.7average 7.3
- CSU -0.3average 42.3
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU86
- AfD27
- Grüne26
- Freie Wähler25
- SPD16
- CSU + AfD113 of 180
- CSU + Grüne112 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler111 of 180
- CSU + SPD102 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.