Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 7 September 2023 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 4 to 7 Sep 2023
- Respondents
- 1,004
- Method
- Online
- CSU41.0%-1.0
- Freie Wähler15.5%+4.0
- AfD15.0%±0
- Grüne13.5%+1.0
- SPD6.5%-3.5
- FDP3.5%-0.5
- Linke1.0%±0
- Others4.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 4 Sep 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU ahead on 41.0%, followed by Freie Wähler on 15.5%. 1,004 people were surveyed from 4 to 7 Sep 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 4 Sep 2023, Freie Wähler gains 4.0 points, SPD loses 3.5 points, CSU loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU 3.2 points higher and SPD 2.9 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 7 Sep 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CSU +3.2average 37.8
- SPD -2.9average 9.4
- Freie Wähler +1.7average 13.8
- AfD +1.0average 14.0
- Grüne -0.9average 14.4
- FDP -0.5average 4.0
- Linke -0.5average 1.5
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU81
- Freie Wähler30
- AfD29
- Grüne27
- SPD13
- CSU + Freie Wähler111 of 180
- CSU + AfD110 of 180
- CSU + Grüne108 of 180
- CSU + SPD94 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.