Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 4 September 2023 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 31 Aug 2023 to 4 Sep 2023
- Respondents
- 1,400
- Method
- Online
- CSU42.0%+5.0
- AfD15.0%-3.0
- Grüne12.5%±0
- Freie Wähler11.5%-2.0
- SPD10.0%-1.0
- FDP4.0%+1.0
- Linke1.0%±0
- Others4.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 20 Aug 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU ahead on 42.0%, followed by AfD on 15.0%. 1,400 people were surveyed from 31 Aug 2023 to 4 Sep 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 20 Aug 2023, CSU gains 5.0 points, AfD loses 3.0 points, Freie Wähler loses 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU 3.4 points higher and Grüne 2.3 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Sep 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CSU +3.4average 38.6
- Grüne -2.3average 14.8
- AfD +1.8average 13.2
- Linke -1.3average 2.3
- Freie Wähler -0.7average 12.2
- FDP -0.2average 4.2
- SPD ±0average 10.0
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU83
- AfD29
- Grüne25
- Freie Wähler23
- SPD20
- CSU + AfD112 of 180
- CSU + Grüne108 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler106 of 180
- CSU + SPD103 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.