Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 20 August 2023 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 14 to 19 Aug 2023
- Respondents
- 1,892
- Method
- Online
- CSU37.0%-3.0
- AfD18.0%+1.5
- Freie Wähler13.5%+3.0
- Grüne12.5%-1.0
- SPD11.0%+1.0
- FDP3.0%±0
- Linke1.0%
- Others4.0%-2.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 31 Jul 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU ahead on 37.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 1,892 people were surveyed from 14 to 19 Aug 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 31 Jul 2023, CSU loses 3.0 points, Freie Wähler gains 3.0 points, AfD gains 1.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD 5.0 points higher and Grüne 2.5 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 20 Aug 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +5.0average 13.0
- Grüne -2.5average 15.0
- CSU -1.8average 38.8
- Freie Wähler +1.5average 12.0
- Linke -1.3average 2.3
- FDP -1.2average 4.2
- SPD +0.8average 10.2
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU73
- AfD35
- Freie Wähler26
- Grüne24
- SPD22
- CSU + AfD108 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler99 of 180
- CSU + Grüne97 of 180
- CSU + SPD95 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.