Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 31 July 2023 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 27 to 31 Jul 2023
- Respondents
- 1,042
- Method
- Online
- CSU40.0%+1.0
- AfD16.5%+0.5
- Grüne13.5%-1.0
- Freie Wähler10.5%±0
- SPD10.0%+1.0
- FDP3.0%-1.0
- Others6.5%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 4 Jul 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU ahead on 40.0%, followed by AfD on 16.5%. 1,042 people were surveyed from 27 to 31 Jul 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 4 Jul 2023, CSU gains 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD 4.5 points higher and Grüne 2.1 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 31 Jul 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +4.5average 12.0
- Grüne -2.1average 15.6
- FDP -1.0average 4.0
- Freie Wähler -0.9average 11.4
- CSU +0.8average 39.2
- SPD -0.6average 10.6
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU79
- AfD33
- Grüne27
- Freie Wähler21
- SPD20
- CSU + AfD112 of 180
- CSU + Grüne106 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler100 of 180
- CSU + SPD99 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.