Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 4 July 2023 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 29 Jun 2023 to 4 Jul 2023
- Respondents
- 1,300
- Method
- Online
- CSU39.0%-2.0
- AfD16.0%+4.0
- Grüne14.5%+2.0
- Freie Wähler10.5%-1.5
- SPD9.0%-1.0
- FDP4.0%-2.0
- Linke1.5%±0
- Others5.5%+0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 24 May 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU ahead on 39.0%, followed by AfD on 16.0%. 1,300 people were surveyed from 29 Jun 2023 to 4 Jul 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 24 May 2023, AfD gains 4.0 points, CSU loses 2.0 points, Grüne gains 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD 4.6 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Jul 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +4.6average 11.4
- SPD -1.4average 10.4
- CSU -1.0average 40.0
- Grüne -0.9average 15.4
- Freie Wähler -0.7average 11.2
- Linke -0.5average 2.0
- FDP -0.2average 4.2
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU79
- AfD33
- Grüne29
- Freie Wähler21
- SPD18
- CSU + AfD112 of 180
- CSU + Grüne108 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler100 of 180
- CSU + SPD97 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.