Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 24 May 2023 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 21 to 24 May 2023
- Respondents
- 1,100
- Method
- Online
- CSU41.0%-3.0
- Grüne12.5%-2.0
- AfD12.0%+2.5
- Freie Wähler12.0%±0
- SPD10.0%+2.5
- FDP6.0%+1.0
- Linke1.5%+0.5
- Others5.0%-1.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 6 Apr 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU ahead on 41.0%, followed by Grüne on 12.5%. 1,100 people were surveyed from 21 to 24 May 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 6 Apr 2023, CSU loses 3.0 points, AfD gains 2.5 points, SPD gains 2.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has Grüne 4.1 points lower and FDP 1.8 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 24 May 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -4.1average 16.6
- FDP +1.8average 4.2
- Freie Wähler +1.6average 10.4
- AfD +1.4average 10.6
- CSU +1.0average 40.0
- Linke -0.8average 2.3
- SPD -0.2average 10.2
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU79
- Grüne24
- AfD23
- Freie Wähler23
- SPD19
- FDP12
- CSU + Grüne103 of 180
- CSU + AfD102 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler102 of 180
- CSU + SPD98 of 180
- CSU + FDP91 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.