Single poll

Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 6 April 2023 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Fieldwork period
31 Mar 2023 to 6 Apr 2023
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • CSU44.0%+1.0
  • Grüne14.5%-3.0
  • Freie Wähler12.0%±0
  • AfD9.5%-0.5
  • SPD7.5%+1.5
  • FDP5.0%+1.0
  • Linke1.0%±0
  • Others6.5%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 19 Feb 2023.

In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU ahead on 44.0%, followed by Grüne on 14.5%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 31 Mar 2023 to 6 Apr 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.

Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 19 Feb 2023, Grüne loses 3.0 points, SPD gains 1.5 points, CSU gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU 4.0 points higher and Grüne 3.1 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 6 Apr 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CSU +4.0average 40.0
  • Grüne -3.1average 17.6
  • SPD -1.9average 9.4
  • Freie Wähler +1.8average 10.2
  • AfD -1.1average 10.6
  • FDP +1.0average 4.0
  • Linke -1.0average 2.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 86 seatsGrüne: 28 seatsFreie Wähler: 23 seatsAfD: 18 seatsSPD: 15 seatsFDP: 10 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU86
  • Grüne28
  • Freie Wähler23
  • AfD18
  • SPD15
  • FDP10
  • CSU + Grüne114 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler109 of 180
  • CSU + AfD104 of 180
  • CSU + SPD101 of 180
  • CSU + FDP96 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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